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was enough, and withdrew its efforts
to support global oil prices, letting oil
prices plummet to crush the high-cost
American upstart.
Damage to American oil this time
has, by many measures, been worse
than the 1980s, with a faster decline in
oil prices, the lowest level of drilling
activity ever recorded, and a record
fall in capital spending on oil explo-
ration. Some 77,000 oil-related jobs
were lost in Houston. Unlike the 1980s,
however, Houston's economy did not
collapse in 2015-16, but simply shifted
from boom times to two years of no
growth. Offsetting oil losses, the local
economy was supported by moderate
growth in the U.S., sustained boom-time
momentum, and a major petrochemical
expansion on the Ship Channel.
Houston began 2017 on a high note,
as analysts declared that oil markets
were entering recovery, and OPEC
returning to action with a promise to
do 'whatever it takes' to support oil
prices. But euphoria in oil markets and
the Houston economy was short-lived,
as oil prices remained mired at $45 for
much of 2017. Local oil-related hiring
briefly surged and then fell back, and
now we find the rig count once more in
moderate decline.
Oil prices moved up again late
in 2017. However, if this oil-market
optimism fades in 2018, as it did in
2017, and oil jobs don't return in large
numbers, only the U.S. economy is left
to support Houston's growth. The Ship
Channel construction boom has ended,
and any boom-time momentum is gone.
Relying on the U.S. economy alone,
Houston could create 40,000 new jobs
CH A R L E N E F L A SH , M . D.
Assistant medical director of
HIV services for Harris Health System
and assistant professor at
Baylor College of Medicine
"I would improve access in our most
vulnerable communities to life-saving
tools for the treatment and prevention
of HIV and other diseases."
BI L L GI L M E R , PH . D.
Director of the Institute for Regional
Forecasting at Bauer College of
Business, University of Houston
"American oil production bottomed out
at 5 million barrels per day in 2010, only
to surge past 9 million by late 2014. This
dramatic turnaround was the product
of $100 per barrel oil and the advent
of a new U.S. fracking industry. But in
late 2014, OPEC decided that enough
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